The Most Oversaturated Brewery Markets in America (2026 Data)
While 8,000+ ZIP codes have zero breweries despite strong demographics, the opposite extreme is just as striking: neighborhoods where craft breweries outnumber restaurants, where the ratio of breweries to residents defies economic logic, and where 240 breweries have already closed.
The US craft beer industry has 7,823 active breweries. The national average Brewery Density Index is 28.7 per 100,000 residents. But the most saturated ZIP code — San Diego, CA — hits a BDI of 336.8, which is more than 10× the average. When the next wave of closures comes, these are the markets most at risk.
Top 25 Most Oversaturated ZIP Codes
These ZIP codes have the highest concentration of breweries relative to their population. A high BDI doesn't automatically mean trouble — but when combined with closures, it signals a market under stress.
| # | ZIP | City | State | BDI | Breweries | Population | Closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 92121 | San Diego | CA | 336.8 | 14 | 4,157 | 2 |
| 2 | 97110 | Cannon Beach | OR | 266.0 | 3 | 1,128 | 0 |
| 3 | 81427 | Ouray | CO | 239.8 | 3 | 1,251 | 0 |
| 4 | 55802 | Duluth | MN | 234.4 | 6 | 2,560 | 0 |
| 5 | 49440 | Muskegon | MI | 227.5 | 3 | 1,319 | 0 |
| 6 | 44702 | Canton | OH | 194.4 | 2 | 1,029 | 0 |
| 7 | 60603 | Chicago | IL | 177.6 | 2 | 1,126 | 0 |
| 8 | 03262 | North Woodstock | NH | 170.7 | 2 | 1,172 | 0 |
| 9 | 62701 | Springfield | IL | 165.2 | 2 | 1,211 | 0 |
| 10 | 80482 | Winter Park | CO | 161.7 | 2 | 1,237 | 0 |
| 11 | 98402 | Tacoma | WA | 160.0 | 12 | 7,500 | 1 |
| 12 | 14840 | Hammondsport | NY | 159.1 | 4 | 2,514 | 0 |
| 13 | 16501 | Erie | PA | 156.3 | 3 | 1,919 | 0 |
| 14 | 26260 | Davis | WV | 153.0 | 2 | 1,307 | 0 |
| 15 | 99840 | Skagway | AK | 152.9 | 2 | 1,308 | 0 |
| 16 | 67202 | Wichita | KS | 142.7 | 3 | 2,102 | 0 |
| 17 | 89501 | Reno | NV | 137.3 | 5 | 3,641 | 0 |
| 18 | 52401 | Cedar Rapids | IA | 136.9 | 3 | 2,192 | 0 |
| 19 | 37408 | Chattanooga | TN | 132.1 | 4 | 3,029 | 1 |
| 20 | 37902 | Knoxville | TN | 130.0 | 3 | 2,308 | 0 |
| 21 | 03101 | Manchester | NH | 127.1 | 4 | 3,148 | 1 |
| 22 | 74103 | Tulsa | OK | 124.0 | 3 | 2,419 | 0 |
| 23 | 35233 | Birmingham | AL | 123.6 | 4 | 3,236 | 0 |
| 24 | 49670 | Northport | MI | 120.6 | 2 | 1,659 | 0 |
| 25 | 52801 | Davenport | IA | 119.8 | 2 | 1,670 | 0 |
Closure Hotspots: Where Breweries Are Already Failing
The ZIP codes below have experienced the most brewery closures. Many still have high BDI scores, suggesting the shakeout is ongoing — more closures may follow as the market corrects.
| ZIP | City | State | Closed | Still Active | BDI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 98072 | Woodinville | WA | 6 | 10 | 40.1 |
| 36602 | Mobile | AL | 3 | 1 | 111.5 |
| 99201 | Spokane | WA | 3 | 9 | 62.4 |
| 98660 | Vancouver | WA | 3 | 4 | 29.2 |
| 98225 | Bellingham | WA | 3 | 10 | 19.9 |
| 21401 | Annapolis | MD | 3 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 06405 | Branford | CT | 3 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 92121 | San Diego | CA | 2 | 14 | 336.8 |
| 98107 | Seattle | WA | 2 | 13 | 45.8 |
| 03801 | Newington | NH | 2 | 7 | 30.1 |
| 98108 | Seattle | WA | 2 | 6 | 24.6 |
| 37402 | Chattanooga | TN | 2 | 1 | 23.8 |
| 94559 | Napa | CA | 2 | 6 | 21.6 |
| 98290 | Snohomish | WA | 2 | 7 | 17.6 |
| 98057 | Renton | WA | 2 | 2 | 16.5 |
Most Saturated States by Average BDI
At the state level, brewery density varies dramatically. States at the top of this list have the highest average concentration — which means their markets face the greatest competitive pressure per capita.
| # | State | Avg BDI | Breweries | Closed | ZIP Codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Delaware | 434.8 | 28 | 0 | 18 |
| 2 | West Virginia | 111.4 | 37 | 3 | 30 |
| 3 | New Mexico | 74.5 | 83 | 0 | 46 |
| 4 | Missouri | 73.4 | 129 | 8 | 86 |
| 5 | New Hampshire | 66.1 | 93 | 13 | 54 |
| 6 | Maryland | 60.4 | 128 | 20 | 87 |
| 7 | Tennessee | 57.6 | 111 | 4 | 67 |
| 8 | Alaska | 54.5 | 53 | 6 | 31 |
| 9 | Maine | 51.6 | 114 | 0 | 68 |
| 10 | New York | 46.8 | 419 | 0 | 271 |
| 11 | Vermont | 44.8 | 59 | 0 | 42 |
| 12 | North Carolina | 43.3 | 311 | 0 | 164 |
| 13 | Idaho | 42.6 | 62 | 3 | 32 |
| 14 | South Dakota | 40.3 | 43 | 1 | 24 |
| 15 | Arkansas | 36.4 | 45 | 0 | 24 |
What Oversaturation Means for the Industry
The Brewers Association reported 434 closures in 2025, outpacing 268 openings. Our data shows these closures aren't random — they're concentrated in ZIP codes with extreme BDI scores. The pattern is clear: areas that added breweries fastest during the 2015-2022 boom are now shedding them fastest.
For entrepreneurs, the lesson is straightforward: avoid markets where the BDI already exceeds 20. For existing breweries in high-BDI areas, differentiation and community loyalty become survival strategies. And for everyone watching the industry — don't confuse a correction in Portland with a crisis for craft beer. The demand exists; it's just distributed unevenly. That's why 8,000+ brewery deserts sit untapped while saturated markets contract.
Methodology
BDI (Brewery Density Index) = active breweries per 100,000 residents per ZCTA. Data: Open Brewery DB (active and closed brewery locations), US Census ACS 2023 (population). Only ZCTAs with 2+ active breweries and population ≥1,000 are included in rankings to avoid statistical anomalies. Analysis by BrewDensity.com.